Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
