Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
