A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
